Applicability of NSI indicators to nonideological targeted violence: A review of the academic literature

A combined report with START on assessment of the Nationwide Suspicious Activity Reporting (SAR) Initiative (NSI) indicators.

Executive Summary

In 2019, the Department of Homeland Security published the Strategic Framework for Countering Terrorism and Targeted Violence, constituting the Department’s official recognition of terrorism and targeted violence as intersecting phenomena. With this recognition, there is an increasing need to evaluate the applicability of existing counterterrorism programming to nonideologically motivated targeted violence.

The purpose of this report is to review the empirical evidence connecting the Nationwide Suspicious Activity Reporting Initiative 16 indicators, which we will refer to as NSI Indicators, to acts of nonideologically motivated targeted violence. Our goal in conducting this review is to provide a cohesive appraisal of the current academic evidence base on suspicious activity reports (SARs). We identified and analyzed empirical studies (n=75) with topical relevance to NSI Indicators and targeted violence to determine (1) whether current academic research supports the applicability of NSI Indicators as preoperational behaviors to acts of terrorism and targeted violence, and (2) if there are additional behavioral indicators that should be included as a NSI Indicator for nonideological targeted violence. To address these questions, we assess the available evidence for each NSI Indicator independently in relation to terrorismandnonideological targetedviolence, includingmass violence and school violence.

Report Findings

Two indicators, Expressed/Implied Threats and Weapons Collection/Discovery were the most studied and supported NSI Indicators in application to acts of terrorism and nonideological targeted violence. Other NSI Indicators, including Recruiting/Financing, Observation/Surveillance, Materials Acquisition/Storage, and Acquisition of Expertise, were supported in relation to acts of terrorism. While preliminary evidence indicates Observation/Surveillance, Materials Acquisition/Storage, and Acquisition of Expertise behaviors can precede acts of nonideological targeted violence, more research is needed to assess this connection. We draw on empirical research on target selection to help contextualize these findings. Additionally, seven out of eight NSI Indicators capturing criminal activity with a nexus to terrorism were not examined or not supported by the available evidence as preoperational indicators of terrorism or nonideological violence.

Based on our review, we conclude that current academic research on terrorism and targeted violence does not support the addition of new NSI Indicators. Studies have identified numerous threatening or concerning behaviors that indicate an individual may be a heightened risk for violence, but these behaviors either do not meet the criteria for a NSI Indicator or can be mapped onto existing NSI Indicator categories. We describe the importance of considering concerning behaviors and aggravating factors in the investigation of SAR. We also highlight the potential for additional threat assessment infrastructure, such as the National Threat Evaluation and Reporting (NTER) Behavioral Approach to Violence Prevention or Threat Assessment and Management Teams, to augment the SAR process.

Full Combined Report