Event-related threats in the United States: Analysis of plots and incidents from 1970–2024

Research on event-related threats in the United States

Project Overview

In an analysis of 42 plots against public event venues in the U.S. (1970–2024), NCITE researchers understand how completed attacks against events compare to failed or foiled attempts. NCITE researchers compiled open-source cases, coded venue/event, incident, and attacker features, and derived findings using data analysis methods alongside behavioral indicators from the Terrorism Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP‑18). The study finds that larger and outdoor events are frequent targets; weapons vary more with event size, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs) concentrated at outdoor venues; most plots aim to strike during events; and leakage (communications that reveal intent) is common in foiled cases. Overall, findings underscore the value of proactive venue security and community reporting to reduce harm at mass gatherings.

The study finds that larger and outdoor events are frequent targets; weapons vary more with event size, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs) concentrated at outdoor venues; most plots aim to strike during events; and leakage (communications that reveal intent) is common in foiled cases.

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