Older and wiser: How terrorist leaders’ tenure influences tactical decisions

Understanding the impact of leader tenure and role on group operations.

Abstract

Terrorist leaders play a central role in overseeing and executing strategic and operational decisions to advance their group’s political goals. One key decision includes what targets should be attacked and how often. While previous research has identified various factors influencing target selection, little attention has been given to how individual-level characteristics shape terrorist leaders’ tactical choices. This study examines how a leader’s tenure and role in founding a group affect the nature and balance of targets attacked in group operations. Using a global sample of 120 terrorist leaders across 77 groups, longitudinal multi-level models reveal that as a leader’s tenure increases, so does their group’s attack frequency on both soft and hard targets. Contrary to expectations, groups led by more experienced leaders devote a greater proportion of their attacks to soft targets. Additionally, groups led by founding leaders attack hard targets at significantly lower rates than those led by non-founders. These findings, consistent with organizational science theories, suggest that terrorist organizations may exhibit strategic leadership dynamics similar to those in traditional firms.

Longitudinal multi-level models reveal that as a leader’s tenure increases, so does their group’s attack frequency on both soft and hard targets.

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