Everything, everywhere, all at once: Looking at the current milieu through Rapoport's four waves theory of modern terrorism

Understanding the current mileu through Rapoport’s four waves theory of modern terrorism.

Abstract

Terrorism researchers originally focused much of their work on the individuals or organizations engaged in acts of terrorism. However, in 2004 David Rapoport developed a novel framework for understanding modern terrorism as observed in four chronologically sequenced “waves,” i.e. cycles of activity in a given time period characterized by expansion and contraction phases. Since then, scholars have offered compelling visions of a Fifth Wave—e.g. racially and ethnically motivated violent extremism, cyberterrorism, etc. The general lack of consensus on this point does not indicate that these proposed waves are insignificant or lack empirical support, but rather that the current milieu is not dominated by a single, coherent cycle of activity. As an interdisciplinary team adopting a socio-technical lens, we argue that the concurrence of multiple unique “waves” today—which we refer to as a maelstrom—is enabled by two structural factors: (1) growing global distrust in governments and their underlying institutions; and (2) the rapid democratization and convergence of emerging technologies. We present a data-informed analysis to support our argument. This carries critical implications for both research and practice, as understanding the interplay between these two structural factors is essential for developing more nuanced, adaptive counterterrorism strategies that can address the complex, multi-layered threats posed by today’s extremist landscape.

This carries critical implications for both research and practice, as understanding the interplay between these two structural factors is essential for developing more nuanced, adaptive counterterrorism strategies that can address the complex, multi-layered threats posed by today’s extremist landscape.

Full Paper